INTERNATIONAL REFEREED JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT STUDIES AND SCIENCE RESEARCH (IRJEMSR)

Forecasting of Milk Production in Tamil Nadu using the Arima Model
  IJETT-book-cover           
  
© 2024 by IRJEMSR Journal
Volume 1 Issue 1
Year of Publication : 2024
Author : Lt. G.Mari

How to Cite?

Lt. G.Mari, "Forecasting of Milk Production in Tamil Nadu using the Arima Model," International Refereed Journal of Economics, Management Studies and Science Research (IRJEMSR), vol. 1, Iss. 1, pp. 1-10, 2024.

Abstract

The study is to predict milk construction in Tamil Nadu using a stochastic model. This study framed a model on the basis of the data obtain from NDDB information. This study cover the era from 1979–80 to 2018–19. The obtained time series data were systematically processed under all conditions of Box Jenkins methodology, such as identification, estimation and diagnostic checking. The study used Statistical Package for the Social Sciences package software for forecasting the model. The study establish that the ARIMA model (1, 1, 0) was an suitable model for opinion. This model had a low BIC value, a good R square value, a significant p value, and satisfied other model fit parameters such as RMSE and MAPE. Based on the model fit statistics, the study estimated that the milk production of Tamil Nadu would increase from 8711.74 thousand metric tonnes in 2019–20 to 9886.26 thousand metric tonnes in 2025–26.

Keywords

Stochastic Model, Time Series Data, Box Jenkin’s Model, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC).

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